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☆ OpenAI executive says the company hasn't 'made GPT-4 dumber,' after Insider reported users complaining about degraded performance
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Alistair Barr | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

GPT-4 users have been complaining about worse performance, Insider reported earlier this week. Several users of OpenAI's GPT-4 have been complaining for weeks that the AI model is performing worse, with some calling the system "lazier" and "dumber." Another user pointed to a recent post from Nihit Desai, a startup co-founder, who reported that performance degraded for data labeling tasks. Yet another user on Twitter pointed to OpenAI's own developer forums, where many GPT-4 users have vented frustrations and posted examples of worse performance. Many hours before publication, Insider asked OpenAI for comment on all this, and the company didn't respond.

Persons: Peter Welinder, OpenAI's, Ethan Harris, Nihit Desai, OpenAI Organizations: Twitter, Army

☆ The Supreme Court's rejection of Biden's student-loan-forgiveness plan will make a looming economic slowdown even worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The repayment poses risks to the economy, with consumer spending likely to be reduced. On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that Biden's plan to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt will be struck down. But they're a weight, it's about 20 million student-loan borrowers that haven't been paying, they'll have to begin paying more or less in September," Zandi said. White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton was asked this week about how the student-loan payment resumption could impact consumer spending. And his concerns are broader than just a contraction in consumer spending.

Persons: —, Joe Biden's, Mark Zandi, haven't, Zandi, that's, Ethan Harris, Morgan Stanley, Olivia Dalton, Dalton, Marshall Steinbaum Organizations: Education Department, Service, Moody's, CNBC, Bank, Bank of, UBS, White, Politico, Family Institute, University of Utah Locations: Wall

☆ Student-loan payments are resuming in 3 months — and borrowers might not be ready for the 'sizeable shock' to their wallets
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Student-loan payments are set to resume in October. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley highlighted the strain borrowers will face. 34% of surveyed borrowers don't think they can afford the payments at all, Morgan Stanley said. Morgan Stanley survey on student-loan payments. Morgan StanleyAnd a Monday note from Morgan Stanley researchers said that just 29% of federal student-loan borrowers are confident they'll be able to afford payments without adjusting spending in other areas.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Joe Biden's, Donald Trump, Biden, Ethan Harris, Harris, Marshall Steinbaum, Miguel Cardona, Cardona, Ro Khanna Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Joe Biden's Education Department, " Bank of, Family Institute, University of Utah, Senate, Twitter Locations: California

☆ European markets head for positive open ahead of Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Maybe Monday's stock market slide shows investors are finally tempering their optimism that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year to counterbalance an economic slowdown. Simply put, investors have bid up stocks since mid-March on a belief that the Fed will pivot policy, and cut rates by half a percentage point in reaction a shallow recession, BofA said. Unfortunately, the bank says such hopes will be dashed. "We see four risks this summer: an ugly debt ceiling battle, a significant tightening of bank credit, a geo-political event and disappointingly hawkish central banks. Hence a mild recession in the US—and flat growth in other major economies—will not trigger an immediate policy response," Harris wrote.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with BofA's Ethan Harris and BNP Paribas' Yelena Shulyatyeva
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with BofA's Ethan Harris and BNP Paribas' Yelena ShulyatyevaEthan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Global Research and Yelena Shulyatyeva, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the market response to the SVB hearing, the regulatory response to the bank crisis, and credit turmoil replacing interest rate hikes.

☆ Inflation looks hard to pull down amid fast wage growth, says BNP's Yelena Shulyatyeva
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation looks hard to pull down amid fast wage growth, says BNP's Yelena ShulyatyevaEthan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Global Research and Yelena Shulyatyeva, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the market response to the SVB hearing, the regulatory response to the bank crisis, and credit turmoil replacing interest rate hikes.

☆ The Fed's rate hike policy doesn't have many fans — but abandoning the inflation target would be a 'disaster' that brings the economy back to the 1970s, a Fed official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The president of the St. Louis Fed said it would be a disaster for the Fed to abandon its inflation target. The Fed has been hiking interest rates aggressively to get inflation down to 2%. The Fed then targeted inflation aggressively and adopted the 2% inflation target in the 1990s. Ethan Harris, a Bank of America economist, wrote in a December note there's little evidence that the 2% inflation target is the "optimal target," per Fortune. Higher interest rates make borrowing — like mortgages to credit cards more expensive.

☆ Fed faces a nearly impossible task: Keep inflation fighting cred and financial stability
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Some investors worry the Federal Reserve will have a tough time succeeding in wielding the tools to both fight inflation and calm the banking system. During the financial crisis and again in the Covid pandemic , it was able to come to the rescue of the financial system by cutting interest rates to zero. Now, it faces persistently high inflation and is considering another rate hike — a tool that could calm rising prices but add more pain to the banking system. Goldman Sachs economists are among the few who expect the Fed to refrain from hiking Wednesday because of worries about the banking system. "We think Fed officials will therefore share our view that stress in the banking system remains the most immediate concern for now."

New York CNN —Global banks just suffered their worst week since 2008. Credit Suisse and First Republic: Two more banks wobbled but remained upright through the week. Meanwhile, First Republic bank received a $30 billion lifeline on Thursday from some of the largest banks in the United States. US-traded shares of Credit Suisse were down nearly 7% and First Republic shares plunged by about 33% on Friday. That doesn’t mean that banks taking money from the FHLB and participating in the Federal Reserve’s emergency Bank Term Lending Program, which lent out $12 billion to banks this week, are in big trouble.

☆ Bank troubles roil markets and make Fed's decision next week more fraught
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Even with Friday's sell-off, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq scored gains for the week. The S & P 500 rose 1.4%, compared to a tiny loss of 0.2% in the Dow . "If the U.S. economy is going into a recession, they're going to be buying less cloud service. On Friday, durable goods for February is reported, and there are releases of flash S & P Global PMI data for services and manufacturing. Durable goods 9:30 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 9:45 a.m. S & P Global Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. S & P Global Services PMI

☆ This is why the Federal Reserve could stay the course and raise interest rates again
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Expectations are high that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by a quarter point next week, but the central bank could still swiftly change policy if the financial system becomes stressed. After a wild ride, fed funds futures Thursday reflected more than 80% odds that the central bank would raise rates by 25 basis points next Wednesday. Market odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike rose sharply Thursday, up from 50% Wednesday. Economists have varying views on how the central bank will respond to recent U.S. bank failures and worries about Credit Suisse. For instance, in 1987, the central bank cut rates immediately after the stock market crash and then resumed hiking again, Harris noted.

☆ The Fed needs to keep tapping the brake, says BofA's Ethan Harris
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed needs to keep tapping the brake, says BofA's Ethan HarrisEthan Harris, BofA Securities global head of economic research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the state of the economy and the Fed.

☆ The Fed wants a recession and is desperate to convince markets it's serious about bringing inflation down, Bank of America chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed wants a recession to convince markets it's serious about bringing inflation down, BofA's chief economist Ethan Harris said. I think that's a very friendly way of saying you want a recession," Harris warned. He predicted the central bank would raise rates another 75-basis-points, and won't be stopped by recession warnings. I think that's a very friendly way of saying you want a recession," Harris warned. Harris said the Fed would continue hiking rates until they saw clearer evidence of a cooling job market and lower services inflation.

☆ Fed will deliver more than the market's expecting, says BofA's Ethan Harris
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will deliver more than the market's expecting, says BofA's Ethan HarrisEthan Harris, BofA Securities global head of economic research, joins CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed's minutes from its December FOMC meeting.

☆ The first quarter could determine how good or bad the new year will be
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-01 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The first quarter of the third year of a presidential term is consistently the best quarter for S & P 500 performance, according to CFRA data. "If everyone says the first half is going to be bad and the second half is going to be good, it could be the opposite. "The timing of the economic rebound probably starts in the second quarter so the market can look forward to it," he said. "Right now it's estimated to be down 3% year-on-year … We are looking at an earnings recession which is typically coincident with an economic recession." The second quarter is expected to be down 2.3%.

☆ 2023 could end up a better year for markets, but it likely won't start off that way
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

As a very painful market year exits, Wall Street's strategists expect 2023 will end on a much better note —even if the path there continues to be highly volatile. I think the Fed will likely be overtightening the economy into this recession." So rates could rise before heading lower in the second half, and that environment will be better for stocks. Rieder said 2023 is going to a banner year for fixed income, and "not so much because it's going to be rates rallying so much," he said. "I think rates still have some upside," said Rieder.

☆ China's economy could rebound soon, but longer-term growth will be 'deeply challenging'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Abigail Ng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China previously "sailed on" economically while other countries struggled, but the world's second largest economy may have a difficult path ahead, according to one strategist. "China has reached that level of its development where a lot of emerging markets typically find the going getting tougher," said Mark Jolley of CCB International Securities. He pointed to the trend of deglobalization, friction between the U.S. and China as well as the weak global economy. "On both sides of the Pacific we hear a lot of wishful thinking that decoupling will promote rather than hurt domestic growth. We disagree," Ethan Harris wrote in a BofA Global Research note published Friday.

☆ The labor market is out of control, says BofA's Ethan Harris
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe labor market is out of control, says BofA's Ethan HarrisEthan Harris, BofA Securities global head of economic research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss inflation and stocks surging on hot inflation data.

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